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Open-Source Battle-Damage AssessmentCompiled 14 May 2025
Operation Sindoor · 7–10 May 2025

Four Days in May

What Operation Sindoor Actually Destroyed

A message to Pakistan, argued from Pakistan’s own evidence: the airbases India cratered, the radars it blinded, the militant headquarters it levelled — and the force gap Islamabad won’t show you. Why the “we won” story is the most expensive thing you will ever be told.

TheatrePakistan · PoJK · N. Arabian Sea
Focus of recordRawalpindi · Bahawalpur · Muridke
Assessment length39-minute read

Congratulations, Pakistan, on your total and glorious victory in the four-day war of May 2025 — a triumph so complete, so decisive, and so entirely unmarked by damage that your own air force has spent every month since quietly issuing more than thirty contracts to rebuild the airbases that were never hit. This is a celebration of that victory, assembled lovingly and entirely from your own paperwork, because it turns out the single most damning witness against the Pakistani military is the Pakistani military's own filing cabinet.

It began, gloriously, at 1:44 on the morning of 7 May 2025. Over the next four days India reached deeper into Pakistan than at any point since 1971 — past the border districts, past Lahore, down to the approaches of Karachi — and, officially, achieved nothing whatsoever against the airbases, radars and command posts of the Pakistan Air Force, all of which are completely fine. That is the position. Hold it firmly in both hands for the duration of this document; you will need the grip. There will be a small quiz at the end, marked by a satellite.

Everything that follows is drawn not from New Delhi but from Pakistani sources: a repair-tender list floated by your own air force, a cabinet minister who lost his place in the script, funerals your own officers attended, and satellite frames your own broadcasters put on air. It would be unpatriotic to take India's word for any of it. You don't have to trust India. You only have to trust the Pakistan Air Force procurement department, which — for reasons no one can explain — has been having its busiest quarter in living memory.

P A K I S T A N I N D I A AFGHANISTAN ARABIAN SEA ISLAMABAD KARACHI LAHORE Skardu Nur Khan Murid Sargodha Rafiqui Rahim Yar Khan Sukkur Jacobabad Bholari Nayachor Masroor Sialkot Rahwali Radar · Pasrur Markaz Taiba · Muridke HQ-9 SAM · Lahore Radar · Chunian Radar · Arifwala Muzaffarabad camps Kotli camps Markaz Subhan Allah · Bahawalpur Malir Cantt · naval strike OPERATION SINDOOR Strike map — 7–10 May 2025 13 airfields · 2 militant HQs · 6+ radar & SAM sites · 1 naval strike — Skardu to Karachi Air base Militant HQ Air defence / radar Naval strike (from the sea)
Every location where, officially, nothing at all took place: thirteen airfields, two extremely peaceful campuses, a ring of air-defence sites, and one naval strike on Karachi, from Skardu in the north to the coast. Positions plotted from public coordinates, which are, we assume, also part of the conspiracy. Air bases red · militant HQs black · air defence blue · naval strike gold
OPERATION SINDOOR Four days, hour by hour 7 MAY · 01:44 Wave 1 9 terror sites struck — the Muridke & Bahawalpur headquarters levelled 7–8 MAY · night Retaliation Pakistan answers with hundreds of drones & missiles; air defences hold 8–9 MAY Blinding the shield Pakistani air defence suppressed — HQ-9 SAMs & radars struck 10 MAY · 02:00–05:00 The air blitz Deep strikes on eleven PAF airbases; India takes air superiority 10 MAY · 17:00 Ceasefire DGMOs agree a halt — bases cratered, the fleet still bottled in port
The glorious victory, achieved in three elegant movements: lose the terror headquarters, then lose the air-defence network, then lose the airbases. Military academies will study this sequence for decades, chiefly as a checklist of things not to do in that order.

Act I — Nine Buildings That Fell Down By Themselves

The opening night went after nine sites India libellously described as "terrorist infrastructure" — a grave slander against nine peaceful religious retreats that merely happened to contain a training schedule, a resident commander, and, in the case of Muridke, a large front gate reading MARKAZ TAIBA. Two mattered above the rest: Markaz Taiba, the Lashkar-e-Taiba campus near Lahore, and Markaz Subhan Allah, the Jaish-e-Mohammed headquarters at Bahawalpur — both, we insist, mosques, and both, coincidentally, no longer upright.

Maxar's satellites photographed the result within hours and Reuters showed the whole world, which was very rude: at Bahawalpur, three domes punched through and 2,100 square metres flattened; at Muridke, the main block simply absent, as if it had nipped out for cigarettes and elected not to return.

Ground-level photo of the destroyed Markaz Taiba building at Muridke, roof collapsed, rubble strewn across the courtyard
Muridke, Punjab — the 200-acre Markaz Taiba complex, at ground level, moments after a sudden, unscheduled and deeply mysterious collapse of its own roof. Built by Lashkar founder Hafiz Saeed, but a mosque. The men in the courtyard are standing in what used to be indoors. Photo circulated in Pakistani and Indian press coverage of the totally natural event

Officials clarified that the strike inside Muridke was not, in fact, four separate precision aim points marked and confirmed against post-strike imagery. It was, they explained, "weather." Meteorologists have since noted that this particular weather system arrived at 600 knots, carried a guidance package, and struck only buildings owned by Lashkar-e-Taiba, but the forecast holds.

Muridke terror infrastructure targets, points 1 and 2, before and after satellite imagery
Muridke, Points 1–2 — before, and after the weather. Point-1's building has relocated entirely; Point-2 has become a debris field, circled in yellow for the benefit of anyone still nodding along.
Muridke terror infrastructure targets, points 3 and 4, before and after satellite imagery
Muridke, Points 3–4 — the same compound, two more places nothing happened, each displaying the identical clean-hit signature you would expect from nothing happening.

Pakistan called them mosques. Pakistanis with phones disagreed. Sky News in London geolocated videos filmed inside the Muridke compound — posted to TikTok, YouTube and Google — flying Lashkar-e-Taiba and "Brigade 313" colours, one clip showing children drilling in martial arts under a jihad hashtag: all standard mosque activities. And the congregation identified itself. Jaish chief Masood Azhar publicly mourned ten relatives and four associates killed at Bahawalpur — a striking number of fatalities for a building that was not hit, which was a mosque, that was definitely a mosque. India's government says more than a hundred militants died across the nine sites, among them Abdul Rauf Azhar, the man behind the IC-814 hijacking and the murder of Daniel Pearl, a devout regular, presumably, at whatever this was.

A compound that trains armed men and flies a militant flag does not become a house of worship because someone later stands in the rubble insisting it was one. India hit the headquarters of the groups behind Mumbai and Pulwama. The "mosque," inconveniently, kept holding funerals for fighters — the only mosque in recorded history whose congregation was issued serial numbers.

Bahawalpur — The Same Nothing, Building By Building

Markaz Subhan Allah got less international airtime than Muridke, but the record of its non-event is, if anything, more detailed: four separate aim points, each independently confirmed to have absolutely not occurred.

Bahawalpur terror infrastructure target, point 1, before and after satellite imagery
Bahawalpur, Point-1 — an intact building complex before, a bare cleared footprint after. The building has, we are assured, gone travelling, and left no forwarding address.
Bahawalpur terror infrastructure targets, points 2 and 3, before and after satellite imagery, intact JeM training compound before, damaged after
Bahawalpur, Points 2–3 — a healthy multi-building compound before; two tidy damage circles after. A very unlucky patch of Punjab.
Bahawalpur terror infrastructure target, point 4, before and after satellite imagery
Bahawalpur, Point-4 — the fourth aim point, same building row, same result: intact, then gone. Four for four, at a place nothing hit.
NDTV broadcast graphic showing Maxar satellite images of Bahawalpur dated May 2 2025 and May 7 2025, before and after strike, two separate buildings
And the televised version, dated 2 May against 7 May, in case the earlier non-events were insufficiently well documented. Satellite image © 2025 Maxar Technologies, via NDTV

The Other Seven, For Completeness

Muridke and Bahawalpur got the coverage; the other seven peaceful campuses rarely do. Here is the full first-wave list of places where nothing happened, with the two sites Pakistan insists are especially untouched flagged accordingly.

#FacilityLocationCoordinatesStatus
1Markaz Taiba (LeT HQ)Nangal Sahdan, Muridke31°50'10"N 74°15'47"EStruck — imagery above
2Markaz Subhan Allah (JeM HQ)Bahawalpur, Punjab29°23'44"N 71°41'01"EStruck — imagery above
3Tehra Kalan training campSialkot, Punjab32°29'24"N 74°25'12"EStruck
4Gulpur camp (Maskar Raheel Shahid)Kotli district, PoJK33°26'05"N 73°51'40"EStruck — Pakistan disputes it, dated Maxar imagery below shows otherwise
5Masjid-e-Abbas (JeM)Kotli, PoJK33°31'06"N 73°54'08"EStruck
6Mehmoona Joya facility (Hizbul Mujahideen)Sialkot, Punjab32°30'00"N 74°31'48"EStruck
7Markaz Usman-o-Ali (Barnala/Ahle Hadith)Bhimber, PoJK32°58'29"N 74°04'23"EStruck — Pakistan disputes this one
8Shawai Nala camp (LeT) & Masjid Syedna Bilal (JeM)Muzaffarabad, PoJK34°21'48"N 73°28'05"EStruck — two facilities, one strike
9Training campNeelum Valley, PoJK34°35'00"N 73°55'00"EStruck

Rows 4 and 7 — Gulpur and Barnala — are the two sites the government has officially, repeatedly and with real feeling denied were struck. The satellite record on Gulpur, below, appears not to have been informed of this position.

Maxar satellite imagery of Kotli-Gulpur terror camp, dated 3 October 2024 and 14 May 2025, showing terror camp damaged
Kotli–Gulpur, dated Maxar imagery, 3 October 2024 against 14 May 2025 — the main building's roof visibly caved in, a second structure damaged, and the frame helpfully captioned "Terror Camp Damaged." This is the site the government swears was never touched. Someone should tell the roof.
Maxar satellite imagery of Syedna Bilal Camp, Muzaffarabad, dated 29 May 2025, showing structural damage with measurements
Syedna Bilal Camp, Muzaffarabad — the damage measured directly on the frame, an 80-by-92-foot section marked "structural damage." Very precise measurements, for a thing that didn't happen. Nothing, it turns out, is 80 feet wide.

Act II — Our Flawless Air Defence, Now Available As Gravel

Pakistan answered the only way it knows how: with mass. On the night of 7–8 May it flung drones and missiles at fifteen Indian locations — Awantipura, Srinagar, Jammu, Pathankot, Amritsar, Kapurthala, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Adampur, Bathinda, Chandigarh, Nal, Phalodi, Uttarlai and Bhuj — something like 600 drones and 800 munitions across the following nights, straight into an Indian air-defence net (the Akashteer system feeding the IACCS, the indigenous Akash, the Israeli SPYDER, and the S-400 held in reserve) that, per the military historian Tom Cooper and his study 88-Hours War, shot them down at a rate near 100 percent. Pakistan even reached for its finest toys — the CM-400AKG "carrier-killer" it had bought to sink Indian aircraft carriers, here deployed ambitiously against parked radar dishes, and even the nuclear-capable Ra'ad cruise missile, several of which India reports catching out of the air like frisbees. None of it moved the arithmetic. The Chinese-built shield over Pakistan's skies performed magnificently, right up until it was asked to defend anything, at which point it performed like gravel. Beijing has requested that the results not be used in the export brochure.

It did, in the end, become gravel. Across 7 and 8 May Indian Harop and Harpy loitering munitions, backed by jamming that blinded the radars, went after the HQ-9 batteries ringed around Lahore and Sialkot. Six separate radar heads are confirmed destroyed on before-and-after imagery — Chunian, Pasrur, Sukkur, Arifwala, Jacobabad and Gujranwala — each displaying the same three-stage sequence beloved of satellite analysts: dish present, dish absent, men standing thoughtfully around the space where a dish used to be.

Cooper's day-by-day reconstruction is not warm. On the evening of 7 May Pakistan emptied its magazines — three to four hundred drones and Fateh-1 rockets at some thirty locations — for next to no effect. India's reply the next morning was roughly 160 Harop loitering munitions into three HQ-9 batteries, the Walton battery inside Lahore judged "largely destroyed," with the munitions ranging as far as the army's own headquarters district in Rawalpindi. Cooper also noticed the small design flaw in the whole scheme: Pakistan had roughly two or three days of drones and rockets and no money to buy more. India could keep swinging indefinitely. Pakistan ran out of arm.

A Harop loitering munition detonating on the HQ-9 SAM site at Walton, inside Lahore, debris thrown into the air
Walton, inside Lahore, around midday on 8 May: the precise instant an Indian Harop makes the acquaintance of an HQ-9 battery, debris climbing merrily into the air. The Ministry classifies this not as "destroyed" but as "an extremely sudden and thorough inventory review." Circulated footage
Sukkur airfield radar site, before and after satellite imagery showing radar destroyed
Sukkur's radar site — intact dish before, a dark collapsed footprint after. It appears to have simply lain down and asked not to be woken.
Chunian air defence radar, before and after satellite imagery, radar destroyed
Chunian air-defence radar — same signature, and this time the frame just comes out and says it: "radar destroyed."
Pasrur air defence radar, before and after satellite imagery, radar head damaged
Pasrur air-defence radar — located on the base plan, then the close-up: "radar head damaged." A phrase doing an enormous amount of quiet work.

One Harop was even filmed dismantling a Swiss-made Oerlikon gun; ground photographs show Pakistani soldiers posing beside their own burnt-out HQ-16 surface-to-air system, and separate footage caught a Pakistani SAM battery being towed hurriedly through Lahore's streets for safety, which is a bold look for a weapon whose entire job is to stand still and be brave. Air defence, as a concept, requires the air defences to remain in the vicinity of the air. By the night of the ninth the shield had holes in it, and India had a map of every one.

How carefully choreographed was all this? Extremely. Months later the Indian Air Force chief, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, gave a memorial lecture in Bengaluru walking through the targeting base by base, on the record, with before-and-after frames — the confidence of a man reading out a receipt. A briefing slide, consistent with that lecture, lays out the sequencing: a 02:00–05:00 window on 10 May against Chaklala, Rahwali, Rafiqui, Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur, Murid and Nayachor, then a 10:00–12:00 window against Sargodha, Bholari and Jacobabad, each target tagged with what was hit — SAM, runway, hangar, or "UG C2," being the underground command bunker you are not supposed to know Pakistan has.

IAF RESPONSE · 9–10 MAY 2025 The two strike windows, target by target 02:00–05:00 HRS · 10 MAY The pre-dawn blitz — seven airfields Nur Khan · Chaklala UG C2 Murid · Chakwal UG C2 Rahim Yar Khan RUNWAY Rafiqui · Shorkot RUNWAY · UAV Sukkur RADAR Rahwali AIRFIELD Nayachor AIRFIELD 10:00–12:00 HRS · 10 MAY The second wave — three airfields Sargodha · Mushaf RUNWAY Bholari HANGAR Jacobabad · Shahbaz HANGAR · RADAR Sequencing per an Indian Air Force briefing slide, consistent with Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh's on-record account. “UG C2” = a hardened, underground command-and-control node.
The two windows on 10 May in which the Indian Air Force paid a house-call to eleven airbases, target by target. Note the professional tidiness; note also that these are, per Islamabad, all fine.

That slide is also the clearest confirmation that Murid was not merely a runway but an underground command-and-control bunker — a hardened complex beside the base's drone hangars, marked as a direct hit. When your secret buried bunker turns up, correctly labelled, on the enemy's PowerPoint, the "secret" and the "buried" are both doing less work than the budget implied.

Murid air base before and after satellite imagery, Maxar
Murid Air Base, before and after. The underground operations centre India Today identified sat beneath the building shown here, next to the drone hangars — "underground" being, at this point, more of an aspiration than a location. Satellite image © 2025 Maxar Technologies
Arifwala air defence radar, before and after satellite imagery, radar head damaged
Arifwala air-defence radar, the fifth of the confirmed radar kills — same signature, same "radar head damaged" label. With Gujranwala, that makes six radars enjoying early retirement.

A Longer List, For Anyone Not Yet Convinced

A wider tally of Pakistani radar and SAM sites has circulated — thirteen entries, with named equipment and grid coordinates — and honesty compels us to note that the precise model identifications and arc-second coordinates go beyond what can be independently confirmed. So: where a row matches the imagery above, treat it as gospel; where it doesn't, treat it as an enthusiastic rumour. Even the Ministry appreciates a good hedge.

SiteSystem (as reported)CoordinatesStatus (as reported)
Arifwala radar siteAN/TPS-77 or YLC-8B30°07'36"N 72°59'26"EStruck & destroyed — matches imagery above
Chunian radar siteAN/TPS-77 or YLC-8B30°57'25"N 73°58'12"EStruck & destroyed — matches finding above
Pasrur radar siteAN/TPS-7732°14'19"N 74°41'21"EStruck & destroyed — matches imagery above
Sukkur radar siteAN/TPS-43G/J27°43'00"N 68°47'20"EMatches confirmed Sukkur radar strike above
Sargodha radar siteAN/TPS-7732°03'20"N 72°40'05"EReported near PAF Mushaf, Sargodha
Jacobabad — 2nd radar siteGiraffe 40 (mobile)28°17'08"N 68°27'42"EReported struck & destroyed, distinct from the Shahbaz radar below
Shahbaz (Jacobabad) radar siteAN/TPS-77 (radome)28°16'15"N 68°28'00"EReported struck, near PAF Shahbaz
Bholari radar siteLikely AN/TPS-7725°14'49"N 68°01'02"EReported struck, near PAF Bholari
Murid SAM siteLikely FM-9032°55'09"N 72°45'54"EConsistent with the underground-complex strike confirmed above
Nur Khan SAM siteHQ-9BE33°37'16"N 73°05'03"EReported ineffective against the Indian strike
Malir Cantonment SAM siteHQ-9BE24°56'11"N 67°12'37"EMatches the confirmed naval-linked strike — see below
Walton Airport SAM siteHQ-9P/BE31°31'N 74°24'EReported: C2 vehicle destroyed
Chor radar siteAN/TPS-77 (reported under construction)25°31'32"N 69°46'27"EUnconfirmed — reported only as "possibly targeted"

Six of these thirteen rows corroborate findings already nailed down through named imagery or on-record statements. The rest come from a wider compilation this account cannot independently verify, and are offered for completeness — not, unlike an official Pakistani briefing, as settled fact.

Act III — Eleven Airbases That Are Completely Fine

Then came the blitz, in two courses. The Observer Research Foundation counts four airbases confirmed damaged on 9 May, four more taking limited damage on the tenth, and the heavy strikes landing between 02:00 and 05:00 that morning, when India's air force visited the Pakistan Air Force where it lives — eleven airbases confirmed by name (Sukkur and Skardu, harder to confirm from imagery, bring the map to thirteen). Roughly a fifth of PAF infrastructure was destroyed in that three-hour window alone. A Swiss think-tank later concluded the IAF had won air superiority and marched Pakistan to the ceasefire table. Runways and hangars, unhelpfully, are the two hardest things on earth to hide after the fact: you cannot claim a runway is fine while it is visibly wearing a crater, and you cannot delete a hangar from a satellite by frowning at it, though the Ministry has, to its credit, tried. Here is what the satellites keep finding, base by base.

Jacobabad — A Hangar That Simply Opened

This is the clearest single frame of the entire war. Zoom to the apron at Jacobabad: an intact hangar in 2024, its roof blown wide open in 2025, and the aircraft that had been parked outside now sensibly somewhere else.

Before · Aug 2024Jacobabad hangar intact before the strike
After · 2025Jacobabad hangar with roof destroyed after the strike
PAF Base Shahbaz at Jacobabad. The hangar stands whole in 2024; in the after frame its roof is torn open and the interior exposed to the sky, a bold ventilation choice for a region that reaches 50°C in summer. Six months on, the hole was still there, still unrepaired, still making headlines — which is a long time to leave a roof off a building nothing hit. Esri World Imagery, dated captures · Aug 2024 vs Sep 2025
Reference photo of the same Jacobabad hangar showing an F-16 inside, alongside the KawaSpace satellite damage image, matched to a PAF Base Shahbaz ceremony photo
How do we know it was that hangar, and what was in it? OSINT analysts matched the damaged roofline to an older ceremony photo taken inside the same building — the "PAF BASE SHAHBAZ" sign, and an F-16 parked precisely where the roof later came down. A very inconvenient filing system.
Jacobabad Airfield official briefing slide showing the aircraft hangar before and after the strike
A fourth angle on the same hangar, before and after: intact, then punctured and scorched. At this point the hangar is better documented than most royal weddings, and has attended roughly the same number of press conferences denying it exists.
Ground-level view of PAF Base Shahbaz at Jacobabad, the control tower lettered SHAHBAZ with the main hangar's collapsed roof structure behind it
And from ground level, in case orbit felt too distant: the control tower still proudly lettered SHAHBAZ, and directly behind it the main hangar's roof folded down into a tangle of steel. Both, officially, fine. Circulated footage

Nur Khan — A Strike Beside The Army's Own Front Door

Maxar satellite images of Nur Khan dated April 25 2025 and May 10 2025, the struck building boxed
PAF Base Nur Khan (Chaklala), Rawalpindi — a short drive from the army's own headquarters. NDTV's Maxar comparison, 25 April against 10 May, boxes the building that stopped existing. The target was its underground air-defence command bunker; the operations complex above it was gutted, two Türkiye-built decision-support centres included. Pakistan then demolished the wreckage rather than repair it — the universal signal of a building that is completely fine, the way one hires a bulldozer for a scratch. Satellite image © 2025 Maxar Technologies, via NDTV
Chaklala Airfield Nur Khan official briefing slide showing operations centre destroyed after attack, before and after satellite imagery
A third confirmation, official-briefing style: the operations centre at Chaklala, boxed before, and captioned "Operations Centre Destroyed After Attack" once it declined to be there anymore.

Hitting Nur Khan was the boldest single move of the operation: a precision weapon put through a base minutes from the nerve centre of the Pakistani military, which received the message about reach loud, clear, and in surround sound. Cooper's reconstruction adds a bonus loss on the same apron — a C-130 Hercules transport, set thoroughly alight.

Night silhouette of a C-130 Hercules transport against a fireball at Nur Khan airbase
Nur Khan by night: the unmistakable nose and high wing of a C-130 Hercules, thrown into silhouette by the fire currently consuming it, minutes from army headquarters. A memorable evening for everyone insisting it was a quiet one. Circulated footage

Bholari — A Hangar, A $300-Million Jet, And A Name

Bholari Airfield briefing slide showing the aircraft hangar before and after, roof scorched and collapsed
PAF Base Bholari, Sindh. The hangar, before and after: intact, then scorched black and collapsed inward. India put a crater through it — and inside sat a Saab 2000 Erieye airborne early-warning aircraft, one of a tiny fleet. A retired Pakistani air marshal, doing the maths no one asked him to, said the hangar took four BrahMos and priced the loss at about US$300 million. He was, at least, off-script.
OSINT geolocation matching the Bholari hangar hit by IAF to a formation photograph of Pakistan Air Force personnel and aircraft
OSINT geolocation matched the Bholari hangar to a PAF ceremony photograph — same apron marking, same hangar — and labelled it directly: "Hangar Hit By IAF." The internet, again, refusing to play along.

Bholari is also where the denials run out of road, and where the jokes stop. Pakistan's own military conceded that five airmen were killed here, and Pakistani sources named one of them: Squadron Leader Usman Yusuf. There is nothing funny in that sentence, and nothing intended to be. A state does not concede dead men — by base, by number, by rank and name — at an installation it insists was never touched. If there is a punchline at Bholari, it belongs entirely to the officials still, to this day, telling his countrymen it didn't happen.

Sargodha — Craters On The Master Jet Base

Sargodha Airfield briefing slide showing two damaged runway areas, before and after, surface under repair
PAF Base Mushaf, Sargodha — home of the F-16 fleet. Two crater sites on the airfield plan: Area-1, where a repair crew is already, suspiciously promptly, resurfacing; Area-2, the raw crater scar still visible in the grass. OSINT analyst Damien Symon published matching imagery; one of the six conceded airmen died here.

Beyond those four, India also visited Rahim Yar Khan (runway cratered, field closed), plus — per a footnoted Centre for Air Power Studies monograph that names all eleven bases — Rafiqui (runway and drone-control complex), Sialkot, and Murid, whose target was another underground bunker sitting beside a hangar full of Turkish and Pakistani drones. Masroor on the Karachi coast and two bases that barely make the English-language news — Rahwali and Nayachor — round out the eleven. At Skardu the CAPS study is honest enough to admit it can't confirm the exact target for lack of imagery, which is more honesty than the entire Pakistani information ministry managed all year. India says it downed as many as thirteen Pakistani aircraft across the operation; for a while that was New Delhi's word alone, but the air-to-air picture has since cleared, and it cleared in one direction — documented, as it happens, in footage Pakistanis filmed themselves (see below). Pakistan, meanwhile, claimed six Indian jets and produced wreckage of exactly none of them, which we will return to in the interest of fairness.

Rahim Yar Khan Airfield briefing slide, Area 1 runway craters and Area 2 damaged building, before and after
Rahim Yar Khan. Two aim points on the airfield plan: Area-1, a pair of fresh craters straight through the runway; Area-2, a support building captioned "Building Damaged," two neat impacts on its roof. The field closed by NOTAM, which is aviation's official, internationally recognised way of saying "please do not attempt to land on the holes."

The Navy's Bold Plan To Remain Exactly Where The Boats Were

While the air force scrambled, the navy executed a doctrine of rare subtlety, known to strategists as "staying exactly where the boats were." India had moved its Western Fleet — carrier, destroyers, frigates, anti-submarine ships — into the northern Arabian Sea, inside strike range of Karachi, and its Director-General of Naval Operations announced the fleet was positioned to hit the city "at a time and place of our choosing," which is the sort of thing you say when you have already checked and nobody is coming out. The Pakistan Navy studied this threat carefully and responded with the one manoeuvre it had rehearsed to perfection: mooring.

P A K I S T A N I N D I A A R A B I A N S E A Karachi within strike range KARACHI — Pakistan Navy HQ Fleet confined to harbour · never sortied INS Vikrant — Carrier Battle GroupWestern Fleet: destroyers · frigates · anti-submarine SEA CONTROL Northern Arabian Sea — Karachi in the crosshairs
India held the northern Arabian Sea. With Karachi inside the carrier group's reach, the Pakistan Navy made the boldest decision available to a modern fighting fleet: it stayed in the harbour, motionless, for four days, and let the sea belong to someone else. Original schematic; force positions per Indian Navy briefings

This was not a bluff. Air Marshal AK Bharti confirmed on the record that a missile site at Malir Cantonment — an army garrison inside Karachi itself — had been struck, and a Pakistani journalist helpfully added that it "was carried out from the sea, using the warship INS Vikrant." So the air force and the navy reached the same city from two different directions, and it was, once again, Pakistan's own commentators who confirmed it. With friends like these, the Ministry hardly needs India.

The Pakistan Navy, for its part, has since been quietly commended for Outstanding Achievement In Not Moving — an award it shares with the harbour wall, the harbour, and a bollard named Faisal. A rival theory holds that a fleet which sits at anchor for four days within visual range of an enemy carrier is not "preserving its strength" but "hiding," but we would gently remind that theory that a parked car has also never lost a race, and that a fleet which never sails can never, technically, be sunk — a record the Navy intends to defend from the pier, indefinitely.

Things That Fell Out Of The Sky (Regrettably, Ours)

For weeks the air-to-air scoreboard was the murkiest corner of the war: both sides claiming kills, neither showing the bodies. That fog lifted, and it lifted the wrong way for Islamabad. Frame by frame, geolocated and cross-checked, the footage that surfaced after May 2025 documents Pakistani aircraft coming down over Pakistani soil — including the two things an air force can least afford to mislay: its flying radar, and its pilots.

The Eye In The Sky, Now In A Field — A Saab 2000 Over Dinga

The single most valuable aircraft in Pakistan's inventory is not a fighter; it is the Saab 2000 Erieye, the flying radar that tells every other jet where the enemy is. On 10 May one was tracked and destroyed in the air over Dinga by an Indian S-400 firing its 40N6E interceptor — the 400-kilometre missile, in its first combat use anywhere on earth, credited with one of the longest-range air kills on record. Circulated video caught the interception and the fireball; other clips caught the debris raining toward Gujranwala, and residents who mistook the two tumbling halves of the aircraft for a pair of falling jets — a generous over-count Pakistan has, for once, chosen not to adopt.

The S-400 engagement over Dinga, frame by frame: the interception, the fireball, and — recovered in a field — the interceptor's own casing, its stencilled serial confirming the 400-kilometre 40N6E round. A further Erieye was reported down the same day over Kohat. Compiled from circulated footage; the clip plays in the online edition

This is the loss the arithmetic cannot absorb. Pakistan flies only a handful of Erieye aircraft; India had already burned one on the ground at Bholari. Take a second — a third, if Kohat holds — out of the sky, and you have not merely lost airframes; you have blinded every fighter that depended on them. An air force without its eyes is an air force feeling around the room in the dark, loudly announcing that it can see perfectly, and then walking into the furniture on national television.

The Fighters — A JF-17 Over Dinga

The fighters came down too. Over the same Dinga fields a JF-17 — the Sino-Pakistani mainstay of the fleet — hit the ground, and the debris was not shy about it: the scorched exhaust nozzle of its Russian RD-93 engine, and a blackened avionics box being carried off by a villager who now owns more of a JF-17 than he expected to this year.

Recovered JF-17 debris: a blackened avionics box and the RD-93 engine nozzle
Debris recovered near Dinga: a charred avionics box in a villager's hands and the distinctive nozzle of a JF-17's RD-93 engine. Neither typically detaches from an aircraft that is fine. Stills from circulated footage

And here is the campaign's masterpiece of accounting. The PAF, rather than admit a jet was lost at Dinga, called a press conference to announce it had "intercepted a missile," and displayed the wreckage of a 40N6E as its trophy — the very same long-range interceptor built to kill aircraft, which does not fall over open farmland unless it has just been fired at something in the sky. What came down at Dinga burned in a fireball far too large for the "drone" local police first reported, and had India actually lost a drone there, Islamabad would have paraded it from coast to coast rather than quietly waving a spent missile casing. Displaying the interceptor that just shot you down, as proof that you won, is a bit like being mugged and then holding up the mugger's business card as evidence you came out ahead.

The Mirage That Was Debated Into Existence

Then there is the Mirage. A field of scattered wreckage — a wing panel stencilled 24-045, a shattered engine, an ejection seat — went round the internet under a caption war. Indian accounts called it a downed PAF Mirage III/V; Pakistani accounts insisted, with the special confidence of a losing hand, that it was an Indian Mirage 2000, or possibly a MiG-29, or possibly a weather balloon, the story shifting with the hour. The debate lasted exactly as long as it took someone to look at the engine.

Wreckage engine compared to reference photos: an Atar-9 engine (Mirage III/V) and an RD-93 engine (JF-17), neither of which is an Indian jet engine
The wreckage engines, matched against reference photos: a SNECMA Atar-9 (the powerplant of the PAF's Mirage III/V) and a Klimov RD-93 (the JF-17's engine). Whatever Pakistan wished it were, an Atar-9 is not fitted to any Indian aircraft, and the attempt to pass it off as a French Snecma M53 or a Russian RD-33 died the moment the parts were laid side by side. It was Pakistan's Mirage. OSINT engine comparison, circulated

The tidiest confirmation came, as ever, from the most restrained possible source. When India's Directors-General of Military Operations held their formal briefing — the one at pains to insist the fight was "with terrorists, not the Pakistani military" — the very first exhibit rolled on the screen was video of the debris of a downed Pakistani Mirage. India spent that entire press conference underplaying what it had hit, and still opened by showing a Pakistani fighter in pieces on the ground. When even your enemy's polite version of events begins with your jet in a field, the argument is essentially over.

Collage of Pakistani Mirage wreckage panels, engine parts and structural fragments, one panel stencilled 24-045, captioned The Pakistani Mirage
The compiled debris — the airframe panel numbered 24-045, the Atar-9 engine, structural fragments — the same wreckage India put on screen at its DGMO briefing. Labelled, for anyone still workshopping alternative theories, "The Pakistani Mirage." Debris frames circulated after the strikes; the Mirage was also shown in India's official DGMO briefing

The Odometer Nobody Told To Stop Counting

And now the single funniest piece of evidence in the entire war, and it belongs to neither government. Martin-Baker is the British firm that builds most of the world's ejection seats, and it keeps a cheerful public "lives saved" counter on its website — a running odometer that ticks up by one every time a pilot pulls the handle and lives. It is a lovely bit of engineering pride. It is also, inconveniently for Rawalpindi, a tamper-proof scoreboard of exactly how many aircrew had to abandon an aircraft.

Martin-Baker public lives saved counter showing a Mirage silhouette and the total 7784
Martin-Baker's public "lives saved" ticker — the odometer of ejections, shown here at an earlier reading. It stood at 7,789 as the war opened on 7 May and had clicked to 7,792 by the ceasefire on the 10th; of those saves, five were logged with no crash details attached at all. Martin-Baker public ejection record (martin-baker.com)

Here is why that matters. Martin-Baker only logs successful ejections — a pilot leaving a doomed aircraft and surviving — and, under standard confidentiality agreements with air forces, it withholds the where, the when, and the what for any loss in active combat. So across the 88 hours the counter quietly advanced by several ticks whose details were left conspicuously blank. And which air forces in this war fly Martin-Baker seats? Pakistan's — in its F-16s, its JF-17s, and its Mirage III/Vs. Every blank tick on a British company's website is a Pakistani pilot who successfully abandoned an aircraft that Islamabad insists was never lost. The government of Pakistan issued denial after denial; a polite ejection-seat manufacturer in Buckinghamshire, updating a web page, quietly filed the receipts.

The Pilots — Found In The Fields

And then there were the crews. In the days around 10 May, video after video showed Pakistani villagers combing fields and canals for their own downed airmen: a pilot filmed parachuting down and then searched for on the ground; another confronted by villagers in Sialkot after being found in the night; civilians in Bhimber hunting for aircrew near where a missile booster had fallen. The Ministry has, as yet, offered no term for a nationwide multi-day search for one's own pilots — though "community outreach" remains available, as does "an unusually well-attended nature walk." In those same Sialkot fields the booster of an Indian MR-SAM (Barak-8) interceptor turned up, serial number still legible: physical proof of how hard, and how close to Pakistan's own towns, the air battle was fought.

A man crouches beside the fin section and serial-numbered booster of an Indian MR-SAM interceptor recovered in a Sialkot field
Sialkot, 10 May: a resident inspects the fin and serial-numbered booster of an Indian MR-SAM (Barak-8), recovered in open ground near where villagers were searching for a downed pilot. Two different countries' hardware, in one Punjabi field, on a day nothing happened. Still from circulated footage, geolocated to Sialkot

The Full Home-Video Collection

None of what follows came with an official press release, which is precisely why it exists. It is footage Pakistanis filmed themselves — the fireballs, the debris, the searches — and posted, before anyone in a uniform could suggest they didn't. In the online edition every clip plays; here they are as stills, for the scrapbook.

JF-17 debris · Dinga
Fireball · Dinga
Strike explainer · Dinga
Night impact · Gujranwala Cantt
Erieye wreckage · Kohat
Villagers on the crash ridge
Aircrew search · Sialkot
Pilot found in the night · Sialkot
Rangers searching · fog
Missile-booster debris on wet groundBooster debris · Kotla
Indian MR-SAM interceptor booster, second viewMR-SAM booster · 2nd view

By the final day, the crowning detail. Per Cooper's account, the strain on the PAF had grown so severe that it pressed its K-8 Karakorum jet trainers — the aircraft of its own "Sherdils" aerobatic display team — into the fight, bolting 23-millimetre gun pods underneath and sending them up on combat patrols to swat Indian loitering munitions, with what Cooper drily calls "unknown success." Sit with the image: the airshow squadron, the ones who do the smoke trails in the national colours at weddings, handed live gun pods and scrambled to chase robots out of the Punjab sky. This is the aviation equivalent of arming the wedding band because the actual soldiers are busy. An air force that had won the war does not finish it flying its display team at drones, watching its citizens film the wreckage, and searching its own fields for its own pilots. Cooper's verdict is that India called the nuclear bluff, gutted the ability to retaliate, and pushed the PAF back from the border — and that the balance between the two states was, by the ceasefire, permanently changed. But you needn't take his word for it. Take the tenders.

The Reckoning — In Our Own Paperwork

For weeks the military held the line: minimal damage, a few stray hits, Indian jets falling in dozens. Then the evidence began to arrive — not from Delhi, but from Islamabad, hand-delivered, gift-wrapped.

  • Thirty-plus emergency repair tenders. Within weeks the air force was floating more than thirty urgent contracts to rebuild runways, hangars and buildings at Nur Khan, Jacobabad, Bholari, Sukkur, Sargodha, Masroor and Rafiqui, and at Rawalpindi, Kallar Kahar and Risalpur. If you are keeping a tally at home: that is thirty-one contracts to repair the damage that did not occur, which is thirty-one more than most countries commission for undamaged buildings. Nowhere on any of the forms does it explain what, in a country that suffered no damage, the money is for.
  • The Deputy Prime Minister forgot the script. In December, Foreign Minister and Deputy PM Ishaq Dar confirmed on the record that Indian strikes had hit Nur Khan, injuring personnel and damaging the base — a full cabinet-level admission, delivered by the second-most-senior man in the government, presumably to the quiet horror of everyone who had spent seven months saying otherwise.
  • Six airmen, conceded. The military admitted six of its airmen were killed — five at Bholari, one at Sargodha — and one was named. States do not concede dead men, by base and by rank, at installations they say were never touched. This one is not a joke, and never was.
  • A retired air marshal did the sums. One of Pakistan's own former air marshals described the Bholari hangar taking four BrahMos and put the destroyed early-warning jet at about $300 million, with wider losses "well over a billion dollars" — a suspiciously specific figure for damage that officially rounds to zero.
  • Masood Azhar mourned his dead. The Jaish chief's public grief for fourteen killed at Bahawalpur is, at minimum, an admission that the "mosque" was rather full of his people.

Taken together, it is the most thorough self-incrimination a losing side has ever filed in a South Asian war: the loser, in its own voice — its ministers, its procurement office, its own funerals — reading its losses aloud and then, in the same breath, insisting it hasn't. If a prosecutor had written Pakistan's press releases himself, he could not have secured a fuller confession.

One More Claim, Filed Under "We're Not Sure Either"

Indian outlets citing a supposed leaked internal PAF assessment go further still — total losses of roughly $7.6 billion across seven airbases, adding Minhas (Kamra), Faisal (Karachi) and MM Alam (Lodhran) to the confirmed six, and a critically-hit electronic-warfare jet at Nur Khan. This is not in the CAPS or ORF assessments, and "leaked internal report" describes where a claim came from, not whether it's true. It is flagged here, kept firmly apart from the confirmed record, because — unlike a Pakistani press briefing — this account tells you which bits it can't stand behind.

The Scoreboard We'd Rather You Didn't See

6
Airmen we eventually admitted losing
11
Airbases that are completely fine
6
Radars that chose to lie down
9
Mosques, weather-affected
2
Militant HQs relocated to ground level
~600
Drones sent; number that reached anything: shy
30+
Repair tenders for the undamaged bases
$300M
Value of the jet in the hangar that's fine
23min
For India to stroll through our air defence
0
Navy sorties (a bold strategic masterstroke)

The Full List Of Things That Are Fine

TargetTypeCoordinatesWhat India destroyed
Nur Khan / ChaklalaAir base33.62°N 73.10°EOperations & C2 complex gutted; later demolished
BholariAir base25.24°N 68.04°EHangar cratered; Saab Erieye AEW&C destroyed; Sqn Ldr Usman Yusuf + 4 airmen killed
Shahbaz / JacobabadAir base28.28°N 68.45°EF-16 hangar roof torn open (visible in imagery); radar; ATC damage
Mushaf / SargodhaAir base32.05°N 72.67°ERunway craters; 1 airman killed
Rahim Yar KhanAir base28.38°N 70.28°EHangar, radar & runway cratered; field closed
Murid (Chakwal)Air base32.91°N 72.77°EHDBT underground C2 node + TB2/Shahpar-I UAV complex destroyed (CAPS/Maxar/India Today)
SukkurAir base27.72°N 68.79°ERadar destroyed; specialised hangar & shelter destroyed
Rafiqui (Shorkot)Air base30.76°N 72.28°ERunway & UAV control complex targeted (CAPS)
SialkotAir base32.52°N 74.36°EMaintenance infrastructure targeted (CAPS)
Skardu (Qadri)Air base35.34°N 75.54°EHosts F-16/JF-17 squadrons; exact target not confirmed — imagery unavailable (CAPS, honestly hedged)
RahwaliAir base32.29°N 74.14°EAirfield infrastructure struck
NayachorAir base25.75°N 69.77°EStruck in the 02:00–05:00 wave (IAF briefing)
MasroorAir base24.90°N 66.94°EOn Pakistan's own repair-tender list
Malir Cantonment — KarachiSAM site~24.88°N 67.18°EStruck from the sea by INS Vikrant (Air Marshal Bharti, on record)
HQ-9 SAM systems — Lahore / SialkotAir defence~31.6°N 74.3°EChinese-built SAM batteries neutralised
HQ-16 (LY-80) SAM batteryAir defenceDestroyed; wreckage photographed with PAF personnel present
Radars — Chunian, Pasrur, Sukkur, Arifwala, Jacobabad, GujranwalaRadarvariousSix radar heads confirmed (before/after imagery or ORF confirmation each); more reported — see extended list, Act II
Markaz Taiba — MuridkeMilitant HQ31.80°N 74.25°ELeT headquarters destroyed (Maxar/Reuters); ground photos show total collapse
Markaz Subhan Allah — BahawalpurMilitant HQ29.35°N 71.62°EJeM headquarters flattened; domes pierced
Remaining 7 camps — Sialkot, Kotli, Bhimber, Muzaffarabad, Neelum ValleyMilitantPoJK / PunjabAll nine first-wave camps listed individually in Act I, above
Minhas (Kamra) · Faisal (Karachi) · MM Alam (Lodhran)Air bases (unconfirmed)variousReported only in a "leaked internal PAF report" — see "The reckoning," not independently corroborated

Every entry above is graded by source strength — on-record statements and press-credited satellite imagery outrank think-tank monographs, which outrank OSINT compilations, which outrank a single unverified clip. It is, in other words, held to a higher standard of evidence than any statement issued from a Pakistani podium during the entire war.

How This Keeps Happening To Us

The whole thing turned on reach — hitting the targets without flying into them. Rafales fired SCALP cruise missiles; Su-30MKIs carried BrahMos (fifteen to eighteen of them, on an extended booster that pushes them well past the advertised range); HAMMER bombs, the RAMPAGE missile, and Israeli-origin SkyStriker and Harop loitering munitions did the close work. But per Cooper the real Indian advantage was not any one weapon; it was the wiring. Since 2019 India's Su-30MKI fleet has flown plugged straight into a national air-defence network, so its fighters, radars and missile batteries all fought off a single shared picture — while Pakistan's mix of Chinese and Western kit never talked to itself at all. In a fast air war, the side that sees first and shares fastest wins, and the side whose systems are barely on speaking terms spends the following year issuing repair tenders. India's own summary: it jammed and bypassed the whole Chinese-built shield and finished the job in 23 minutes. Twenty-three minutes. People have worse commutes; you cannot get a pizza in Rawalpindi in the time it took India to cross the national air-defence network.

The wreckage confirmed who threw what. India recovered fragments of Chinese PL-15 air-to-air missiles (the kind Pakistan's J-10Cs fire) and a captured, largely intact Turkish-Pakistani YIHA-III drone, part of a wave of hundreds of cheap drones Rawalpindi flung across the border — hardware, not press releases, retrieved on Indian soil. India's own indigenous loitering munitions went the other way in numbers New Delhi has said almost nothing about, but which Cooper judges "certain to have caused heavy losses to the Pakistan Army." Which they, too, are fine about — fine being, by this point in the document, the most heavily fortified word in the Urdu language.

The Bottom Line

Four days. Two militant headquarters flattened, one of them reduced to rubble at ground level and from orbit both. A ring of Chinese-built air defences blinded — six radars, a national shield, a garrison inside Karachi. Eleven airbases cratered, two of them hiding underground bunkers that are now considerably less underground, an early-warning jet turned to scrap, an aerobatics team sent to war, and a navy that spent the whole thing at anchor. And within weeks, the air force that insists none of this happened was quietly commissioning thirty-one contracts to rebuild it. When the ceasefire was agreed at 17:00 on 10 May, it was not because India had run out of targets. The craters can be patched. The paperwork cannot.

So, once more, from one side of the border to the other, and this time without the jokes: your government told you that you won, or that it was close. Then it floated thirty tenders to rebuild its airbases, admitted the Nur Khan strike at cabinet level, and buried named airmen. Those are not India's claims. They are your own receipts. And a country that had won a four-day war does not spend the year after it quietly re-roofing eleven airbases and burying squadron leaders while telling the people who pay for both that nothing was ever hit.

Believing the victory story is not loyalty. It is the thing that lets the same men lose again, and hand you the same bill, and dare you to notice. Laugh at the spin — it has earned every laugh in this document — but the number under the joke is real: the money spent on this, and on the next one, is money not spent on your schools and your hospitals. The men who died deserve the truth. The men who are still, today, telling you they didn't, do not deserve your applause. The truth, this time, is written in their own hand. All you have to do is read the tenders.

About the imagery & sources

Yes, this is a comedy, but the facts underneath it are not invented, which is rather the whole point. The satellite views are Esri World Imagery — genuine dated captures, before (2024) and after (2025). Crater close-ups belong to the firms that shot them (Maxar, Planet, KawaSpace) and are credited and linked rather than reproduced. The officially-styled before/after airfield and camp slides, and the Maxar/NDTV comparisons, come from battle-damage graphics circulated after the strikes. The maps, timeline and strike-window graphic are original work; coordinates are public facility locations. India's air-to-air claims are New Delhi's own and are flagged as such. The Martin-Baker "lives saved" counter is that company's own public web record; the Pakistani Mirage debris was shown in India's official DGMO briefing and in circulated OSINT compilations; the engine comparison is an OSINT identification, not a laboratory finding, and is presented as such. The jokes are ours; the receipts are Pakistan's. Reporting drawn from: